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Abstract: Earlier this year, the CIA released a fascinating report on seven major trends that will shape American strategic interests through the year 2015. Population dynamics play a role in five of these forces shaping our future.
The CIA’s report, Global Trends 2015, was developed exhaustively over 15 months by the CIA’s National Intelligence Council and experts inside and outside of government. The report identifies seven key forces shaping the future: demographic change; natural resources and environment; science and technology; the global economy and globalization; national and international governance; conflict; and the role of the United States. While the authors found that no single force will dominate the future in 2015, the text indicates that population dynamics will have an effect on at least five of the seven major forces – demographics, environment, economy, governance and conflict. The picture of the world in 2015 is one of sharp contrasts and widening gaps between the haves and the have nots. Tuberculosis, malaria, HIV/AIDS and other diseases are likely to be far more widespread in developing countries than they are today. The number of chronically malnourished people Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase by 20 percent from today’s levels. Greenhouse gas emissions will increase dramatically as population and economic growth cause energy demand to increase by 50 percent in the next 15 years. Developing countries will confront growing local environmental challenges, with rapid urbanization causing significant air and water quality problems. Among the most significant environmental and political challenges facing the world in 2015 and beyond will be the availability of water. The Global Trends report estimates that 3 billion people will live in “water-stressed” regions in 2015. And even as population growths rapidly, a number of developing countries will have less water available for agriculture than they do today. In turn, shortages are likely to increase the possibility of interstate conflict over water – particularly in the some of the most unstable parts of the world. For example, conflict over the use of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers is a possibility between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Use of the River Nile is also problematic. Egypt relies heavily on the river for its water withdrawals, and yet upstream, increased diversions by Sudan and or Ethiopia could create significant challenges between these countries. Water is already a central part of the difficult search for peace in the Middle East. The 2015 report indicates that today’s population of 6 billion is using water faster than nature can replenish supplies. In 15 years, it is expected that overpumping of groundwater in some of the most important agricultural areas in the world will be a growing problem. Already, water tables in important grain-producing regions of China and India are falling by 5 feet or more annually. The costs of increasing water supplies are enormous, and the CIA report indicates that the prospects for alleviating water shortages in 2015 are not promising. How will we provide water for all the world’s people in the future (especially given that more than 1 billion are without safe drinking water today)? What does it mean that great American acquifers, such as the Ogallala are being depleted under the Great Plains? What role does research such as the 2015 report have on US foreign policy and priorities in the 21st century? Demographic change and the most basic building block of life – water – represent a fascinating area for reporters to explore.