Global Population is Aging and at Turning Point, Study Says

WASHINGTON, July 28 -- Population size has pretty much peaked in the world’s more developed countries, but birth rates in poorer countries are falling more slowly than expected, the Population Reference Bureau reported today.

Releasing its annual World Population Data Sheet, the nonpartisan research organization said 2010 is “a transition point” for global population. Because of continued high birth rates in the developing world, overall population growth will continue for decades, while better medical care means that the proportion of elderly people is rising everywhere.

“This demographic shift is unprecedented in world history, and is most likely irreversible,” the report said. With fewer working-age people available to support both the aging and the very young, the shift will test national pension plans and long-term health care systems.

China remains the world’s most populous country, with 1.34 billion people, but is expected to lose that title by 2050, when global population will be 9.15 billion to 9.5 billion, the report said. India, now second at 1.19 billion people, is projected to grow to 1.75 billion by then, to China’s 1.44 billion. The United States is now third-largest at 310 million and is projected to reach 423 million by 2050, chiefly through immigration.  Africa’s population is expected to double, to at least 2.1 billion, and could rise much more if the use of family planning does not increase significantly, the report said.

Women in less-developed countries are now having about 2.5 children each, compared with six each in the early 1950s, “a much more rapid decrease than that of Europe and North America,” the report said. “As impressive as that decline may be, there is still a long way to go.”

past features